Bitcoin is back at $62,000 and the "Trump trade" is back in vogue after the weekend attacks

Butler, Pennsylvania - July 13, 2024: Republican presidential candidate and former President Donald Trump greets supporters with a fist pump as he is quickly led away by U.S. Secret Service agents after being grazed by a bullet at a rally. Butler County District Attorney Richard Goldinger said the attacker was killed in the shooting, which also left one spectator dead and another wounded.

Trump raises his fist as he is escorted by Secret Service agents after being grazed by a bullet on Saturday. The price of bitcoin topped $62,000 as the attack on Donald Trump boosted his election chances.

The yuan and the Mexican peso weakened, and the bond futures rate forecast rose. Assets linked to U.S. Republican candidate Donald Trump's chances of winning the presidential election have experienced renewed volatility following his attempted assassination on Saturday. The attack increased the chances of the pro-cryptocurrency candidate winning the election and further boosted demand in the cryptocurrency market.

Bitcoin (BTC) has risen 7% to $62,500 following the weekend attack, raising its probability of winning on the Polymarket to 70%. According to CoinDesk, the value of the leading cryptocurrency has broken above the key 200-day simple moving average (SMA), an important long-term trend indicator and a favorable signal for a downtrend line following its early June high. The Trump-themed Polifi token also rose rapidly.

In recent months, Trump has shifted his stance and embraced cryptocurrencies in a bid to outdo his rival Joe Biden and win over pro-cryptocurrency groups that want a more friendly regulatory environment for the industry. As a result, Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market have become targets for betting on a Trump victory. The former president is committed to speaking at the Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville, Tennessee, on July 27.

Greg Magadini, head of derivatives at Amberdata, said in an email: "The biggest fundamental story of the weekend was Trump's assassination attempt, which was a must-have. This increases the probability of Trump's re-election as president. As a pro-cryptocurrency president, Trump should boost demand in the cryptocurrency market."

The yuan also fell against the dollar as a Trump victory could mean higher trade tariffs. Earlier this year, Trump suggested revoking China's "most favored nation" status in trade with the United States and imposing tariffs of more than 60 percent on Chinese goods. During Trump's previous presidency, his relations with Latin American countries were very strained, and the Mexican peso fell as a result.

Futures prices tied to the 10-year Treasury note fell, implying higher yields because Trump's return to the White House will mean more spending, tax cuts and higher budget deficits. Several investment banks predict that a Trump victory will steepen the yield curve, which is currently inverted, in the coming months. Historically, sharp curve steepening has often triggered risk aversion in financial markets.

Futures linked to the S&P 500 were up 0.18 percent at press time, pointing to a firmer open on Monday, even as Asian stocks fell on disappointing Chinese growth data. The dollar index - which tracks the value of the greenback against major fiat currencies - was up 0.10 percent at 104.19, according to TradingView.