Biden's chances of dropping out of the race soar to 55%, Obama says he's 'worried' about presidential performance

President Joe Biden's odds of dropping out of the race hit an all-time high of 55 percent on PolyMarket, a number that spiked after former President Barack Obama raised concerns about Biden's campaign and debate performance.

According to The Washington Post, former President Barack Obama privately expressed concern about Biden's re-election chances and stressed that he believed Trump had strong electoral credentials. Obama has offered Biden private advice and support while publicly expressing confidence in his campaign. However, market investors are less certain about when Biden will drop out of the race.

       Markets are currently giving Biden a 42 percent chance of dropping out of the race before the Democratic National Convention, which is scheduled for August 19. According to the New York Times, top Democrats are already preparing for the scenario that Biden leaves the race and are plotting the complicated process of choosing a new nominee. The simplest option would be to nominate Vice President Kamala Harris as Biden's running mate. Since that would be the path of least resistance, the market pushed up the odds of Harris becoming the Democratic nominee to 31 percent, as reported by CoinDesk on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, PolyMarket's bookmakers gave Harris a 13 percent chance of winning the presidential election, while Biden had a 16 percent chance. On PolyMarket, presidential election-related wagers have accumulated more than $211 million, with close to $10 million wagered specifically on Biden's possible exit from the race.

This all adds to the market's uncertainty about the upcoming elections. Biden's campaign has been under pressure from a variety of factors, including age, health and poor debate performances. This has left voters and investors with doubts and concerns about the prospects of his campaign.

It is worth mentioning that if Biden chooses to withdraw from the race, it will cause huge fluctuations in the political arena and have a far-reaching impact on the next Democratic nomination process and the presidential election. The Democratic race will be tougher, and whoever the new nominee is will need to quickly consolidate party resources and mount a strong campaign against Republican candidates, particularly former President Donald Trump.

As the election date approaches, market volatility and voter sentiment are likely to be further amplified. The behavior of punters and market data will also become one of the important indicators to study and judge the election. At a time when the outcome is still unclear, policymakers, party leaders and ordinary voters are watching closely to see what Mr. Biden will do next and what far-reaching implications it could have on the American political landscape.